Substantiation of an Economically Feasible Option for Ordering Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Joint Aviation Groups


This study offers a solution to one of the problems that arise in the routine practice of the Head managers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ministry of Defence – budgetary units when making management decisions. Namely, the search for the most economical (cost saving) option for placing an order between several potential contractors to save budgetary funds, minimise possible risks of exceeding the customer's costs, and organisation of rational spending of financial resources. The purpose of the study is to determine the mechanisms for rapid replenishment of losses of defence products due to the early distribution of defence orders among manufacturers with savings in budgetary funds. To solve the stated problem, an approach was proposed using a statistical method of quantitative risk analysis based on two indicators: the probability of savings and the risk of not receiving the expected savings. An example of using the proposed approach is given for two alternative options for placing an order for unmanned aerial vehicles to create joint aviation groups between three potential contractors. The proposed mechanism for summarising calculations in the final table, acceptable for analysis and allows making the final decision in the management link. In contrast to the approaches used in developed economies, the proposed approach takes into account the capabilities of the manufacturer in terms of production volumes and short deadlines for the production of defence products. Notably, the approach in question can be applied if there are more than two alternative options for the distribution of orders and for more than three potential contractors

Keywords: expected value of savings, probability of savings, risk of not saving, fluctuations of possible savings, variation coefficient of savings