Scientific Bulletin of Mukachevo State University. Series “Economics”

Vol. 12, No. 1, 2025 26.03.2025 open access Open access

Impact of martial law on public investment in innovation

Svitlana Khadzhiradieva, Tetiana Dotsenko, Tetiana Dotsenko, Oleksandr Nazarenko, Serhii Bazyka

DOI https://doi.org/10.52566/msu-econ1.2025.134 Pages 134 –144 Views 1,206 Views

Abstract

The study aimed to examine the degree of influence of martial law on investment activity in innovative project development. The methodological approach was based on analysis, synthesis and generalisation. The study determined a significant negative impact of the introduction of martial law in Ukraine on the processes of attracting investment from the state in various innovative areas. The study determined that the most promising areas of investment during the introduction of martial law in the country are the agricultural sector and construction. The least promising areas of activity for potential investors are the information technology industry, as well as heat and power supply. In addition, government bonds are one of the most common areas of investment funds. Domestic government bonds in wartime should be addressed quite reliably because their profitability is guaranteed directly by the state. After the introduction of martial law in Ukraine, military bonds became widely popular. The study determined that the yield on such securities can reach 18.5% per annum. The study noted a substantial increase in state budget expenditures (from UAH 1,490,258.9 million in 2021 to UAH 4,486,682.7 million in 2024) with an increase in defence spending (from 8.6% in 2021 to 66.1% in 2025). All of this is occurring in the context of a growing state budget deficit during the martial law period. At the same time, a sharp decline in investment in innovation was noted in Ukraine due to a significant increase in the risk of loss of funds from potential investors as a result of the impossibility of implementing investment projects during the hostilities and the suspension or complete shutdown of business structures that were able to fully implement these projects before the war. The factors that influenced the possibility of attracting public investment in the field of innovation by the state during the war were identified to find ways to effectively implement innovative development measures after the end of hostilities

Keywords

development prospects, financial borrowings, effective solutions, external aggression, economic instability, innovations

References

[1] Ahad, M., Imran, Z.A., & Shahzad, K. (2024). Safe haven between European ESG and energy sector under Russian-Ukraine war: Role of sustainable investments for portfolio diversification. Energy Economics, 138, article number 107853. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107853.

[2] Allard, G., Martinez, C.A., & Williams, C. (2022). Political instability, pro-business market reforms and their impacts on national systems of innovation. Research Policy, 41(3), 638-651. doi: 10.1016/j.respol.2011.12.005.

[3] Bakushinskaya, O. (2024). Israeli hi-tech during the war: Sad data. Retrieved from https://news.israelinfo.co.il/125242.

[4] Bijannska, J., & Wodarski, N. (2024). Hard coal production in Poland in the aspect of climate and energy policy of the European Union and the war in Ukraine. Investment case study. Resources Policy, 88, article number 104390. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104390.

[5] Bilyk, V.V. (2022). State regulation of innovative-investment activityEconomics and Business Management, 10, 172-176.

[6] Budget Declaration for 2022-2024. (2022). Retrieved from https://mof.gov.ua/storage/files/%D0%91%D1%8E%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D1%96%D1%8F%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%202022-2024%20%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B8.pdf.

[7] Cai, X., Cheng, Z., & Li, D. (2024). Balancing against geopolitical risk: Household investment portfolios during the U.S.-China trade war. Finance Research Letters, 66, article number 105703. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105703.

[8] Davies, R.B. (2005). State tax competition for foreign direct investment: A winnable war? Journal of International Economics, 67(2), 498-512. doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2004.10.005.

[9] Ferriani, F., & Gazzani, A. (2023). The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices: Consequences for firms’ financial performance. International Economics, 174, 221-230. doi: 10.1016/j.inteco.2023.04.006.

[10] Gavrysh, O., Gavrysh, I., Matiukhina, A., & Vasylets, I. (2024). The first year’s impact of the full-scale war on Ukrainian business. Economics of Development, 23(1), 18-29. doi: 10.57111/econ/1.2024.18.

[11] Gursoy, F. (2012). Changing of the investment climate of Georgia after the war. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62, 1303-1307. doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.09.223.

[12] Gutsan, T.O., & Melnikova, O.M. (2024). Trends in the investment attractiveness of Ukraine under the conditions of martial state. Galician Economic Journal, 87(2), 30-39. doi: 10.33108/galicianvisnyk_tntu2024.02.030.

[13] Hryhorian, O. (2023). Study of the military actions as factor in the regression of innovative development in Ukraine. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 69(1), 30-35. doi: 10.15587/2706-5448.2023.275081.

[14] Hryhorian, O. (2024). Consideration of the peculiarities of the mechanism of stimulating innovative activity. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 75(1), 20-26. doi: 10.15587/2706-5448.2024.298419.

[15] Ilychok, B., Novakivskyi, I., Marmulyak, A., Shkolyk, T., Chernyshev, A., & Tsyrkin, A. (2024). The effectiveness of public governance of Ukraine’s budget security: Current state and trends. Democratic Governance, 17(2), 30-45. doi: 10.56318/dg/2.2024.30.

[16] Ivanov, S., Yudina, S., Lysa, O., & Drahun, A. (2020). Classification and assessment of losses from the armed conflict in Donbas and annexation of Crimea. Economic Annals-XXI, 184(7-8), 107-123. doi: 10.21003/EA.V184-10.

[17] Kelly, E. (2018). €100B? €86.6B? A Brussels puzzle: How big is the new research budget? Retrieved from https://sciencebusiness.net/news/horizon-europe/eu100b-eu866b-brussels-puzzle-how-big-new-research-budget.

[18] Khoma, I., & Vorobiy, K. (2023). Investing in Ukraine during the war and prospects for investment processes in the postwar period. Galician Economic Journal, 86(1), 84-89. doi: 10.33108/galicianvisnyk_tntu2024.01.

[19] Kostruba, A. (2024). Managing foreign business operations in Ukraine in the context of war. Business Horizons, 68(1), 67-81. doi: 10.1016/j.bushor.2024.01.003.

[20] Kraus, K., Kraus, N., & Marchenko, O. (2023). Peculiarities and nature of information provision of investment project activities at the regional level. Investments: Practice and Experience, 6, 30-36. doi: 10.32702/2306-6814.2023.6.30.

[21] Kroitor, V. (2023). Legal principles of venture investment into startups as innovative product. Law and Innovations, 43(3), 39-46. doi: 10.37772/2518-1718-2023-3(43)-6.

[22] Kumar, S., Jain, R., Nardin, C., Balli, F., & Billah, M. (2023). Interconnectivity and investment strategies among commodity prices, cryptocurrencies, and G-20 capital markets: A comparative analysis during COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war. International Review of Economics & Finance, 88, 547-593. doi: 10.1016/j.iref.2023.06.039.

[23] Law of Ukraine No. 40-IV “On Innovative Activity”. (2002, July). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/40-15#Text.

[24] Luu, T.T., & Pham, D.P. (2024). Regional bombs and firm investment decisions: Evidence from the Vietnam War. Economics Letters, 244, article number 112012. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112012.

[25] Lyndyuk, A., Boiko, V., Bruh, O., Olishchuk, P., & Rurak, I. (2023). Development of international cooperation of the borderline territorial communities of Ukraine with the EU countries under martial law. Financial and Credit Activity: Problems of Theory and Practice, 5(52), 244-255. doi: 10.55643/fcaptp.5.52.2023.4161.

[26] Meleshchenko, T. (2024). G7 and G20 Clubs’ participation in international conflict resolution: Ambitions and realia. Foreign Affairs, 34(4), 80-92. doi: 10.46493/2663-2675.34(4).2024.80.

[27] Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. (2023). Innovation support programmes. Retrieved from https://me.gov.ua/Documents/Detail?lang=uk-UA&id=becc6fc5-aa0a-4712-ae98-928855c59be5&title=ProgramiPidtrimkiInnovatsiinoiDiialnosti.

[28] Mykhailyk. O.M., & Birak, Y.V. (2023). Investment and innovative activity of enterprises under martial law conditions, Economy and Society, 58. doi: 10.32782/2524-0072/2023-58-86.

[29] Nehrey, M., & Finger, R. (2024). Assessing the initial impact of the Russian invasion on Ukrainian agriculture: Challenges, policy responses, and future prospects. Heliyon, 10(21), article number e39208. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39208.

[30] Nguyen, C.V., Tran, T.Q., & Vu, H.V. (2024). The long-term effects of war on foreign direct investment and economic development: Evidence from Vietnam. Journal of Urban Economics, 143, article number 103680. doi: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103680.

[31] Nowinska, A., & Olesen, T.R. (2024). Inter-state war dynamics and investment: Insights from the Russia-Ukraine war. Journal of Business Research, 186, article number 114911. doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2024.114911.

[32] Patel, R., Kumar, S., Bouri, E., & Iqbal, N. (2023). Spillovers between green and dirty cryptocurrencies and socially responsible investments around the war in Ukraine. International Review of Economics & Finance, 87, 143-162. doi: 10.1016/j.iref.2023.04.013.

[33] Perminova, S., Sytnik, N., Chupryna, M. (2024). Innovation activity in Ukraine during the period of military aggression: Trends and prospects. Economy and Society, 59. doi: 10.32782/2524-0072/2024-59-62.

[34] Podtserkovny, O.P., & Zyatina, D.V. (2023). Legal encouragement of investments and innovations during war times. Juridical Scientific and Electronic Journal, 7, 177-181. doi: 10.32782/2524-0374/2023-7/39.

[35] Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 1351-r “On Approval of the Strategy for the Development of Innovative Activity of Ukraine for the Period until 2030”. (2024, December). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1351-2024-%D1%80#Text.

[36] Saliman, A., & Le Squot, E. (2024). The impact of the war in Ukraine on the idiosyncratic risk and the market risk. Finance Research Letters, 60, article number 104895. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104895.

[37] Saran, A., & Yildirimer, K.S. (2023). From where to where? Of South Korea economic development and implementation policiesdoi: 10.5281/zenodo.7574357.

[38] Schot, J., & Steinmueller, W.E. (2018). Three frames for innovation policy: R&D, systems of innovation and transformative change. Research Policy, 47(9), 1554-1567. doi: 10.1016/j.respol.2018.08.011.

[39] Semenenko, O., Marko, I., Chernyshova, I., Koverga, V., & Pekuliak, R. (2021). Methodological Aspects of the Military-Economic Significance of Agriculture and Modern Problems of Military Food Resources in Ukraine. Scientific Horizons, 24(8), 81-97. doi: 10.48077/scihor.24(8).2021.81-97.

[40] State Budget Reports of Ukraine. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://index.minfin.com.ua/ua/finance/budget/cons/income.

[41] U.S. Department of State. (2024). Investment Climate Statements: Ukraine. Retrieved from https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/ukraine.

[42] Ukrainian Startup Fund. (2022). Changes in the Fund’s activities during martial law. Retrieved from https://usf.com.ua/zmini-v-diyalnosti-fondu-pid-chas-voiennogo-stanu.

[43] Wang, Z., Liu, S., Wej, Y., & Wang, S. (2023). Estimating the impact of the outbreak of wars on financial assets: Evidence from Russia-Ukraine conflictHelion, 9(11), article number e21380. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21380.

[44] Wisniewski, T.P., & Pathan, S.K. (2024). Political environment and foreign direct investment: Evidence from OECD countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 36, 13-23. doi: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.07.004.

[45] World Bank. (2022). Ukraine. Public investment management diagnostic assessment report. Retrieved from https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099220001172358412.

[45] Zeinedini, S., Karimi, M.S., Khanzadi, A., & Falahati, A. (2024). Impact of oil and gold prices on Bitcoin price during Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars. Resources Policy, 99, article number 105405. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105405.

Suggested citation

Khadzhiradieva, S., Dotsenko, T., Dotsenko, T., Nazarenko, O., & Bazyka, S. (2025). Impact of martial law on public investment in innovation. Scientific Bulletin of Mukachevo State University. Series “Economics”, 12(1), 134-144. https://doi.org/10.52566/msu-econ1.2025.134